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Wednesday, November 29, 2006

 

Sector Spotlight: Wireless

So far, the dip buyers have retaken control of the market and have subjected the sellers to the "whipping post," once again. We are enjoying a broad market rally, with the exception of SNDK.

Again, I like the action in the Energy sector and suggest adding to quality names, such as VLO, SU, CEO or SWN.

As for the Wireless sector:

It happens to be on fire today. Spearheaded by VIP (a position of mine), the Wireless sector, for the most part has been overlooked this year. Moreover, stocks like VIP, NIHD and IDCC have performed nothing less than stellar.

The following Wireless stocks have mojo:

WTT +13%
VIP +6.8%
TPC +5%
AMT +4.1%
LEAP +3.4%
AMX +2.6%
GRRF +2.5%

NOTE: Foreign telco's are also looking very strong today. Perhaps it has something to do with the wheelbarrow dollar.

 

Quick Alert: Merril Sinking SNDK

Merril out with a note this morning to "short" SNDK and go long MU. They also made positive comments on FORM and LRCX.

When it comes to research, monkey's throwing shit at the Wall Street Journal are more accurate than Merril. Nonetheless, I thought some of you would like to know why SNDK is down this morning.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

 

Flyleaf: Fully Alive


 

Closing Comments

Thanks to the tenacious dip buyer, all indices closed higher. However, I am not getting too excited, considering it was only a 0.3% move in the S&P.

Also, I really like the action in the oil/gas stocks, especially ahead of the expected cold front heading towards NYC.

Bottom line: We bounced today, but didn't poleaxe the sellers. My guess is for decisive direction by the end of the week. Until then, I will not short any stocks in size.

 

Quick Alert: Bears Now Hunting Bulls

I sense a sentiment change and all of my bear friends are predicting the end of civilization-- as we know it. While it's true, the dollar decline is alarming, these Elliot Wave guys are calling for a 40% drop in the DOW.

Fuck those Elliot guys, who want to inherit a scorched earth.

However, I do suggest taking on some hedges and booking those profits, while you can.

 

Sector Spotlight: Energy

So far, I don't like what I am seeing in the market. There is a lot of red in leadership tech names, particularly in the Semi's. However, I am also scared to go short, because of the asshole dip buyer. So, the only thing left to do is reduce my long exposure and buy oil.

Many people I know feel buying oil is almost as good as hedging against the market. As many of you know and understand, if oil keeps pressing higher-- the general market will react negatively, yet oil stocks will trade up. This exact scenario played itself out over and over in 2005.

Bottom line: Buying VLO may be a chickenshit way of hedging against a Tech decline. We will see.

The following Energy stocks have mojo:

BQI +6.4%
GGR +6.2%
TTES +5.2%
GMXR +5%
MGPI +4.3%
HES +4.3%
DWSN +4.2%

 

Fly Buy: MVIS

I bought 10,000 MVIS @ $2.61.

Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, canned salesmen may appear at your house to sell you a 2nd hand vaccuum. And, you may lose money.

 

Fly Buy: VLO

I bought 10,000 VLO @ $52.77.

UPDATE: I bought 5,000 VLO @ $55.85

Disclaimer: If you buy VLO because of this post, Santa Claus may "accidentally" carpet bomb your house this Christmas. And, you may lose money.

 

Fly Sell: CNVR

I sold 10,000 CNVR @ $4.72.

 

Fly Sell: SNDK

I sold 10,000 SNDK @ $44.77.

UPDATE: I sold 15,000 SNDK @ $44.71.

Monday, November 27, 2006

 

Gza: Liquid Swords


 

Closing Comments

Fuck me for not shorting stock on Friday. In my head, I knew it was the right thing to do-- but I held back.

I blame the fucking turkey for making me tired and lethargic. Fucking Thanksgiving cost me 100's of thousands of dollars-- and all I have to show for it is a lousy extra 5 pounds on my developing gut.

Days like this make me feel incredibly stupid. I mean, I saw the dollar decline and the frothiness in micro cap stocks, yet I did nothing but buy more. What am I fucking retarded or something?

I have very minor hedges, long MZZ and FXE-- but I wish I had more.

Just to recap:

If you own stocks today, you lost an amazing amount of money and will probably lose more tomorrow. Enjoy.

Every sector, but Gold and Oil, was hit hard and then hit again.

I am eyeballing SYNA and look forward to selling it short-- first thing tomorrow. As for my longs, I will give the market a chance to rebound. However, should it fail, I will draw down my positions and add to my shorts-- in order to hedge and lick my wounds.

 

Fly Sell: SNDK

I sold 5,000 SNDK @ $45.44.

 

Position Updates: MVIS, SNDK

Okay, I am getting poleaxed and I don't like it. As many of you know, deep down I was scared of the markets unstoppable bull run and unwillingly covered my shorts, in favor of going long high multiple growth stocks. So far, I am ahead on that move. But, at this break-neck pace, I will be eating red-- sometime very soon.

MVIS announced a special shareholder meeting. My take is blah-- big non-event. They are not issuing new stock, yet. Again, this is a diceroll with enormous upside. However, they do have liquidity constraints and this move will address that--sometime down the road.

SNDK is getting its fucking ass kicked-- all over Wall Street today. Frankly, I fucking hate the stock and wished I would have sold it. I am going to mull over my risk/reward scenario on SNDK and update later.

 

Quick Alert: Where are the Dip-Buyers?

I suppose this post is not really an alert, more like a fucktarded question. Now, even though I feel today's selloff is unwarranted, let's not forget how much this market has gained in recent months, especially micro cap stocks.

Whenever the garbage floats to the top, a selloff is near. Frankly, over the last two weeks, plenty of bullshit stocks have run. Now it's time for those fuckers to get checked.

However, considering how persistent the dip buyer has been, I wouldn't be surprised to see the buyers initiate buying programs by days end.

Bottom line: The sellers must keep the indices deep in the red in order to make a statement. If not, they will get poleaxed tomorrow.

 

Sector Spotlight: U.S. Dollar

The fucking dollar needs to stop going down. This morning, the shitty greenback is marking fresh lows versus the Euro and it's bringing out all the fucking doomsdayers and giving them a chance to spew their crap-garbage.

According to these fuckers, we will all need wheelbarrows of dollars to buy bread and iPods. The U.S. economy is built on pig shit and its stock markets are 90% overvalued.

Fucking, fucker idiots.

Aside from the dollar, WMT is leading the Retailers lower, mainly because they suck. Additionally, Tech stocks are trading lower, with the exception of AAPL, as investors fear this years holiday shopping will not impress.

Relax.

WMT is not reason to sell. The economy is chugging along just fine and the mobs at BBY are as dense as ever. If we trade lower for a few sessions, I will be delighted to buy cheaper stock.

For now, I remain bullish and I laugh and spit at the doomsdayers.

Friday, November 24, 2006

 

Staind: Fade


 

Sector Spotlight: Online Retail

For me, today is a do nothing, but eat Thanksgiving leftovers, trading session. I am far too busy eating turkey and my special blueberry-pancetta stuffing, than to fuck around with the assholes on the exchange floor.

After I stuff my face with a sufficient amount of candied yams, I will likely take the family over to the local mall for some early Christmas shopping.

From a stock perspective, I don't like the retailers. I feel the expectations are way too high and there is a good chance the sector may selloff. However, I am bullish on the online retailers, like AMZN and EBAY.

Aside from AMZN and EBAY, who else stands to benefit from the great spender?

The following e-commerce stocks are on my radar:

EBAY, AMZN, OSTK, REDE, NILE, BFLY, SNCR, ICCA, APTM, GMKT (S. Korean), LQDT and IGLD.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

 

Coldplay: Swallowed in the sea



Happy Thanksgiving!

 

Fly Buy: TLAB

I bought 10,000 TLAB @ $11.15.

Disclaimer: If you buy TLAB because of this post, Bob Pisani may buy the house next to yours. And, you may lose money.

 

Fly Buy: SNDK

I bought 2,000 SNDK @ $47.25.

Disclaimer: If you buy SNDK because of this post, you may drop your Thanksgiving turkey, on the way to the dinner table. And, you may lose money.

 

Quick Alert: Bullshit on the Rise

Take a look at this list.

Now, there is two ways to look at this pattern.

On one hand, it's a great way to hit the bases loaded homerun. Conversely, market tops are usually marked by euphoria in micro-small cap garbage.

Bottom line: Be careful, but have fun while it lasts. It could last awhile.

UPDATE: I have decided to put my "balls on the line" and suggest SNDK will close up today. If it doesn't, well, I will have to eat an entire turkey by myself.

 

Sector Spotlight: Networkers

The day is dragging on v e r y s l o w l y, unless you are knee deep in the Networkers. On the back BRCD's terrific quarter, most Networkers are on fire.

Additionally, there is ample strength in the Homebuilders, Semiconductors and Chemical stocks too. However, once again, my SNDK position is fucking stabbing me in the heart-- down while everything else is green.

If you are long SNDK, you really have to think end game and ignore day to day fluctuations. SNDK is a juggernaut. So far, the bears in the stock just don't know it yet. Stay tuned.

Aside from that, I feel the market will s l o w l y drift higher today. Believe me, the sellers are not going to get in the way of black Friday. Fuckers.

NOTE: SMDI goes to $10.


The following Networkers have mojo:

FTGX +25%
LNOP +11.2%
BRCD +8.7%
RVBD +6.7%
JDSU +5.9%
MRVC +5.2%
AVNX +4%
CIEN +3.9%
DIVX +2.9%

 

Position Updates: SMDI

Via Briefing:

Research Notable Mentions II : Jefferies believes that despite the recent rally, upside remains to semiconductor stocks. While estimates and growth expectations post CQ3 earnings season are lower, they think sentiment remains positive driven by continued robust end markets in PCs and Wireless Handsets. Among RF/wireless semiconductor companies, they continue to like TXN, QCOM and RFMD. They continue to be positive on INTC, as co should benefit form a healthy PC market and share gains. They also like ARXX and SMDI as their favorite mid/small-cap ideas.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

 

Rakim: In the Ghetto


 

Closing Comments

After today's session, I am convinced this market is now being led by degenerate gamblers, right out of Atlantic City. Vegas is too high end for these fuckers.

Seriously, my intra-day screens are showing rampart speculation in penny stocks and fucking Chinese names. People are literally buying stocks because the word "China" is in the company name. If that is not fucktarded, I don't know what is.

Naturally, because micro-caps are exploding, my MVIS did exceptionally well, up 13%. However, I got poleaxed on SNDK-- which really pissed me off today.

All in all, I had a big day, up 1.8% for the day.

As for the general market:

Everything but Biotech and Semiconductors did well, especially Internet and Steel. My best bet is for more green tomorrow.

 

Quick Alert: Internet / Chinese Stocks on Fire

Aside from GOOG, the following Internet stocks have mojo:

ANSW +11.3%
HAUP +9.3%
LOCM +8.4%
NTES +7.3%
KNOT +6.2%
TOMO +5.5%
BIDU +5%
TFSM +4.2%
STMP +3.4%

Chinese stocks:

CHCG +15.5%
EFUT +14.9%
CHINA +13.3%
CHID +13.8%
CTDC +12.4%
CHNR +10.5%
CLWT +10.1%
TCOM +9.5%
CXTI +9.3%
JOBS +6.4%
CYD +5.7%

 

Fly Buy: SNDK

I bought 2,000 SNDK @ $47.9.

Disclaimer: If you buy SNDK because of this post, your Thanksgiving turkey may come alive and eat all of your stuffing. And, you may lose money.

 

Position Updates: MVIS

From what I hear, there was a seller, who owns the stock from much lower levels, and he is now out of the way. My end game with MVIS is to see the company ink a major cellphone contract. If they can do that, the share price will take care of itself.

 

Position Updates: ADBE

Keep an eye on ADBE. It's about to test an all-time high.

 

Sector Spotlight: Energy

In little less than a week, the weather in NYC has gone from tropical to artic cold. With the bulk of the psychotic winter weather ahead, I can't help thinking about oil/gas stocks.

For months, oil/gas stocks have taken a back seat to high multiple tech's. However, the natural speculator in me feels that if NYC weather stays frosty, then I ought to be positioning, now, in a few oil/gas stocks.

Currently, my largest oil holding is VLO. However, I also have positions in GMXR,UPL, SU, VSE, NGAS, CEO, TSO, CHK and SWN.

Aside from oil/gas:

The market looks like it's setting up to run higher. I am noticing strength in Gold, Steel, Internet and Wireless stocks.

Bottom line: Oil/gas looks like the leader today. But, don't count out the techies from making a late day run.

NOTE: MVIS turning around today. And, please take the new "Fly Survey." Are you Bullish or Bearish on the markets?

The following Energy stocks have mojo:

USEY +9%
PEIX +7.2%
SYNM +4.7%
EPEX +3.5%
IOC +3.4%
ERF +3.4%
NGS +2.7%

Monday, November 20, 2006

 

Rage Against the Machine: Bulls On Parade


 

Closing Comments

Wow, what a close on SNDK. Believe me, I am not shilling for the fuckers at SNDK-- it just looks and feels like it wants to ramp.

Also, I would like to thank the pain I felt-- when short BRCM and SiRF. Without it, I doubt I would have covered them and I probably would be fixing to jump down an elevator-less elevator shaft-- right about now.

I sense the market is setting up to fucking roast the sellers, for Thanksgiving. Please, if you are short, grab a hedge or two.

During today's action, I was most impressed with the Semi's. Aside from my fav, SNDK, I liked the bullishness in MRVL, NVLS, BRCM, TER and WFR.

Bottom line: This is a bull market, bitch.

NOTE: Despite MVIS sucking rocks, I am confident that it will turn up-- sometime soon.

 

Late Day Thought

I am cooking bear for Thanksgiving.

 

Shorting into Thanksgiving...

... is often a recipe for losing money. As you now, all of the fuckers will be out and about, talking up the holiday shopping season--which officially begins Friday. Furthermore, people are happy-- damn it.

If you are really hell bent on shorting stocks, consider doing it Friday-- not before. If early reports indicate the consumer is going to sit this Christmas out-- stocks will tank. However, I doubt this year will be any different from previous spending seasons.

I will say, the bulls are running out of catalysts to drive stocks higher. At some point, the buyers will exhaust themselves and we may finally get a pullback-- just not yet.

NOTE: If you like buying mutual funds, take a look at the Seligman Communications Fund (SLMCX)-- up 16.5% year to date. It is a traditional tech fund that is making big bets on internet security. Top holdings are MFE, SYMC, SNPS, VRSN, KLAC, STX, AAPL, CYMI, DOX and QCOM. I know the manager (Paul Wicke) and he knows his stuff.

 

Sector Spotlight: Tech

After watching Japan and other Asian markets get their asses kicked by the sellers, I was a little worried that we may sell off too. But then I remembered all the asshole dip buyers and how they love to buy a good decline, and I knew we would be fine.

Presto, the market is green and kicking the sellers in the nuts, again.

Let me clarify: The market will NEVER trade down for more than 2 hours again, NEVER! As long as we are chockful of high multiple Tech stock, there will always be "smart money" available to carpet bomb the sellers.

I swear to you, I have turned off the thinking mechanism inside my brain and have decided to just go long-- until it doesn't work anymore. I feel that is the only way I could participate in this bull market, without worrying about driving off a fucking cliff.

As for Tech:

Once again, they look great. Not to sound like a broken record, but SNDK looks bound for low 50's. Also, I like what I am seeing in NVLS, RIMM, LCRD, KNOT, REDF, SIFY, NTES, LQDT, NTGR, MRVL and MSFT.

NOTE: I knew something was up with the Metals on Friday. PD caught a bid. Aside from PD, I think PCU and AL are attractive takeover candidates. Furthermore, I like ERS and CLF for a trade.

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